Author Archives: Paradox13

About Paradox13

Full time geek, part time suit.

Links We’re Reading – January 10-20, 2011

One wonders why so many people wind up in the clink, and Sen. Webb wants to dig into that question, which is awesome.

My answer to him was, “John, when people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.”

The basic trouble, you see, is that people think that “right” and “wrong” are absolute; that everything that isn’t perfectly and completely right is totally and equally wrong.

However, I don’t think that’s so. It seems to me that right and wrong are fuzzy concepts, and I will devote this essay to an explanation of why I think so. – Isaac Asimov

  • The Tucson Shooting’s Most Important Questions – A fantastic compilation of real questions in the wake of the attempted assassination of Rep. Giffords. Worth pondering.
  • A Divorce Dispute Becomes A Religious Cause – I grew up in New Hampshire, where this case is a cause celebre. The courts are asking the right question, what about the rights of a NON-religious parent?
  • The Relativity of Wrong – A classic Asimov essay on false equvilency, and worth revisiting after the tragedy in Tucson. Both sides do not “do it” to the same extent.
  • What Is Violent Rhetoric – A rhetorician (yes, that’s a word) actually defines “violent rhetoric.” Summary: audience matters.
  • Civility 101 – In the same vein, a Berkeley professor explains civility. “So when we ask for civility from our politicians, we are really asking for a recognition that they see themselves, along with us, as members of a cohesive and functional society. It would seem to be the least we can expect from them.”
  • To Understand Assassination Threat, Look Beyond Tucson – Nate Silver is able to take a step back, and hopefully we can all take that step back with him.
  • Post-Abortion Counseling Group Finds Itself on the Firing Line – A great article about an organization dedicated to counseling, rather than judging, after a woman has an abortion.
  • Forclosures In Focus At The Assembly – An article in which I agree, completely, with Bob Marshall. Maybe the President is right about this working together thing.
  • Taxes – Supervisor Miller does a fantastic job breaking down the most charged issue in Loudoun politics. If you read nothing else, read this.
  • Got Dough? How Billionaires Rule Our Schools – Fascinating expose of how private money defines the debate over schools, often to the detriment of meaningful results. An excerpt is worth repeating:

    To justify their campaign, ed reformers repeat, mantra-like, that U.S. students are trailing far behind their peers in other nations, that U.S. public schools are failing. The claims are specious. Two of the three major international tests-the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study and the Trends in International Math and Science Study-break down student scores according to the poverty rate in each school. The tests are given every five years. The most recent results (2006) showed the following: students in U.S. schools where the poverty rate was less than 10 percent ranked first in reading, first in science, and third in math. When the poverty rate was 10 percent to 25 percent, U.S. students still ranked first in reading and science. But as the poverty rate rose still higher, students ranked lower and lower. Twenty percent of all U.S. schools have poverty rates over 75 percent. The average ranking of American students reflects this. The problem is not public schools; it is poverty. And as dozens of studies have shown, the gap in cognitive, physical, and social development between children in poverty and middle-class children is set by age three.

$19,467,399 For Loudoun

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$19,467,399.

That’s how much money Loudoun County has gotten, directly, from the Federal Government since 2002. Most of it has come in the form of earmarks for gang prevention and energy planning or water management. Because we are a leader in so many ways, Loudoun benefits from receiving a very high proportion of Federal dollars compared with our population. As a comparison, Henrico County, another suburban County with a comparable population (~296,000 to Loudoun’s ~301,000), received a little more than $7.1 million in spite of the fact that it is represented by one of the most powerful members of Congress – Eric Cantor.

I got this information from the wonderful, “USAspending.gov” site, which the Obama Administration put in place as part of its government transparency initiative. There’s another good thing the Obama Administration has done with little fanfare and even less credit.This is something to think about as our Republican Congress, and many of their ideological compatriots here in Virginia, prepare to storm the gates of the Federal budget, looking with a jaundiced eye on helping the states. Without that Federal money, Loudoun would have to do without a number of critical services and infrastructure investments, or find an alternative way to pay for them.

For example, it is because of that Federal money that Loudoun County does not actually carry the full costs of its police force. For a decade, Loudoun has been the beneficiary of Department of Justice grants which subsidize the Sheriff’s office. Similarly, our water system has some of its planning and management costs offset by Federal funding.

Lost in the calls for cuts in the “growth of Government” is the fact that that growth often comes in the form of money doled out directly to localities to help cover their costs, and thus subsidizing a lower local tax rate than would otherwise be necessary to maintain the same level of local spending.

Something to keep in mind this year.

(Credit where credit is due, many of these Federal earmarks have come from Frank Wolf.)  

Fiscal Policy 101: Financing vs. Funding

As we enter the 2011 commonwealth election cycle, there are a number of proposals coming from Republican sources that rely on bonds to pay for needed improvements to our infrastructure. The problem with that is the fact the none of these bonds come with an attendant new source of funding to service them in the long-term. In essence, these proposals put major new expenditures on Virginia’s state credit card, leaving us with the bill after the Governor (and others) leave office.

The issue of addressing Virginia’s (and Loudoun’s) needs is not one of financing, but one of funding.

Governor McDonnell’s proposal is perhaps the most prominent.

As part of his budget amendments presented in Richmond in December, McDonnell said he wants to help pay for $4 billion in new transportation spending by issuing $3 billion in bonds. Pulling in more money for road improvements is a major component of the governor’s initiatives for the upcoming 2011 legislative session, which starts Jan. 12. – The Loudoun Times-Mirror

The Loudoun Times gets it right in using the language “pulling in more money” rather than saying “finding new money.” The money the governor proposes to use is already in the Commonwealth’s financing plan for the long-term. He just wants to spend all of it, now. He wants to max out the state credit card on the first of the month. Which begs the question, how will we finance needed improvements in three or five years, when those bonds were already issued?

Follow below for a rough lesson in fiscal policy.  A similar argument is advanced by Leesburg Councilmember Ken Reid, in terms of the Silver Line and the Dulles toll Road.

Therefore, I have been proposing to several Fairfax and Loudoun supervisors, and state officials, to have the state take back the Dulles Rail project from the Airports Authority, use state-backed bonds for construction and apply for federal mass transit New Starts funding for Phase II. – Ken Reid, Leesburg Patch

Leaving aside for the moment the irony of Council member Reid, who voted against essential maintenance of roads in Leesburg, advocating for more local control of the most significant transportation improvement in our region’s history, Reid’s “use state-backed bonds” plan is a dead letter from the start. The Governor’s plan already uses up all the state’s debt capacity. Furthermore, even if those bonds were available to apply to the Silver Line, getting Assembly buy-in for allocating them in that manner is no slam-dunk. And this is ignoring the fact that the cost of issuing and maintaining bonds (interest rates) is getting higher, not lower, for local governments.

Ultimately, however, the procedural niceties of using bonds pale in comparison with the risks to our Commonwealth’s future of issuing bonds without an attendant funding source to service them.

When we issue bonds, we need to pay them down, and pay the interest on them, every year. That money comes directly out of general (tax, fees, etc.) revenues. If we issue more debt without finding a way to also increase general revenues, we must, necessarily, allocate more future revenues from a fixed pot to debt service. When we do that, we leave ourselves less money to maintain our roads in the future. The money we could use in 2014 to pay for road maintenance and construction would have to go to servicing the bonds issued in 2011. Yes, issuing bonds so we will have more money for roads today will actually leave us with far less (not more) money for roads tomorrow!

The Governor and Mr. Reid’s proposals boil down to “let’s get another credit card, and max that one out.” Any financial advisor, or high-school student with a job and a credit card, can tell you that you don’t get a new credit card unless you have gotten a raise. Well, the Governor and Mr. Reid have proposed no way to give the state coffers a raise. Maxing out the state’s debt today is not just imprudent, it is fiscally reckless.

Virginia has a long, and worthy, tradition of fiscal astuteness. The last time we tried a financing-without-funding scheme, we were promised “no car tax.”

How did that work out?

It is up to the people of Virginia, and Loudoun, to be the parents in this analogy. we must send a message to Mr. McDonnell and his allies like Mr. Reid, that new debt without new funding sources is irresponsible. It puts our commonwealth’s future at risk for the sake of a political goal today.

Virginia is better than that. Virginia deserves better from our elected officials, at every level.

[Update] – Sen. Herring makes this point in response to the Governor’s State of the Commonwealth address, demonstrating real leadership.

He also questioned the governor’s proposal to borrow $3 billion for transportation and transit projects. McDonnell’s plan doesn’t provide a long-term funding solution to fix northern Virginia’s congested roads, and it doesn’t provide a revenue stream to repay the bonds, Herring said.

“What are we going to do over the next 17 years while we’re repaying this? (McDonnell) kind of punted the problem to his successor instead of being bold and dealing with it now,” Herring said. “On the other hand, this is something I’m going to have to look at very carefully. We’ve got some of the worst traffic in the nation.” – Sen. Mark Herring

Gay Marriage: The Compassion Case

Gay marriage has directly impacted my life. Or, rather, the lack of gay marriage has directly impacted my life. My opinion of, and positions on, sexual orientation have been entirely determined by my life experiences. My case for gay marriage isn’t one of justice, or politics, or even progressive values. My case is one simply of compassion and personal opinion. But that’s enough for me.

Growing up, I knew no one who was gay. My experience of “gay” was limited to a childhood visit to Provincetown with my family when we were vacationing down the Cape. When I saw men walking hand-in-hand down the street, I didn’t understand what it was, and thought it a little creepy. To my parents’ credit, they simply told me that they “were gay” and that was that – no value judgment.

Fast forwarding a couple decades, the first gay person I ever knew who was out was a friend a few years behind me at UVA. And he did not fit the stereotype still in my head from my fuzzy childhood memories of that single Provincetown visit. He was an introverted techie who liked guns and was a member of the NRA. Finding out he was gay was a well-needed shock to my personal mindset. He and his boyfriend started dating not long after I started dating my wife, and we would all have a blast going out together.

A few years later, my wife and I were living in New York, and a neighbor in the building opened my mind even further. My friend there was out, proud and – to be frank – a little bit intimidating to my still-sheltered mindset on the question of sexual orientation. Thanks to the patience of this man, who took the time to befriend me and talk to me in spite of what I realize today was tactless ignorance in some of the things I said and did, I learned that, no, not all gay men wanted to date me. In fact, I was just plain unattractive to the majority of them, just like women. This friend, too, was soon in a long-term relationship. And those of us living in that building would all go out and have a great time with some frequency. When we moved to Virginia, my friends from New York came to visit us and enjoyed the hospitality of our back deck.By January 1, 2011, all of these gay friends of mine had broken up with their long-term boyfriends. To be frank, this kinda made me angry.

No one can know what goes on inside of another person’s relationship with their significant other. But at least in a heterosexual relationship throughout America, there’s a pattern that it can be assumed serves as the baseline: Dating, Engagement, Marriage. That pattern serves all couples as a framework for having hard conversations about kids, moving in together, and mutual expectations about “where a relationship is going.” The end-game expectation for the vast majority of people is marriage, and that expectation creates a context for having difficult conversations sooner rather than later, and ensuring that couples are on the same page about relationship direction, if not content at any given time.

My friends were denied that expectation. Though they may have individually harbored the expectation of marriage some day in the future, that expectation was personal and not the assumption of the society in which they lived. Their relationships were not afforded the same socially-sanctioned framework of emotional progression that is helpful in catalyzing critically important, if difficult, conversations between two people in love.

I make no judgements as to fault or blame in the dissolution of my friends’ long-term relationships. Every relationship is its own universe, for no one else to truly understand. Indeed, there is likely no fault or blame to be found. But I do judge a society which does not provide the same level of emotional support and expectations for their relationships as for mine. I find myself asking if my friends would have been in these relationships as long as they were if the expectation of engagement and marriage were assumed by all around them? Would they have gotten years of their lives back, years they could have had with another person who might have been walking a path of emotional development more similar to their own?

I don’t know.

But I do know that I don’t care if gay marriage is the Right Thing To Do as much as I care that recognizing the importance of marriage among any two adults in love helps those two adults develop that relationship. The recognition of a marriage is about compassion for me. It’s the recognition that these two people have picked each other, through thick and through thin, and that as their friends it’s our job to help them see themselves and each other through things.

It’s about commitment, and respecting commitment with legal, socially-sanctioned authority. It’s about making staying together the assumption, instead of the exception.

Needless to say, I pray that in my lifetime the blight upon our commonwealth constitution that was enacted in 2007 will be erased, and I aim to help make it so.

{Update}Sen. Don McEachin has introduced a bill in the Assembly to prohibit employment discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. We should all support him in this affort.  

Balanced Budgets

Here in Loudoun County, our Democratic Board of Supervisors has successfully balanced the budget throughout their term of office. In fact, in 2010 the County ended the fiscal year with a surplus.

In general, balancing government budgets is a good idea. That’s among the reasons I’m a proponent of a balanced Federal budget as a general goal. I believe in running deficits for specific emergencies (say, the greatest economic downturn since my grandmother was choosing between buying coffee or butter on her weekly grocery list), but in times of economic prosperity, the budget should aim towards balance.

Of course, I also agree with most Americans as to how that should be acheived.

Sixty-one percent of Americans polled would rather see taxes for the wealthy increased as a first step to tackling the deficit, the poll showed.

The next most popular way — chosen by 20 percent — was to cut defense spending.

Yes, I believe those who gained the most from our American system should pay their dues to keep that system sound and prosperous – just like 61% of my fellow citizens.  

Links We’re Reading – December 22 – 31, 2010

Here’s your link(s) to the new year.

  • What Math? – How Math is a grossly misunderstood subject.
  • Obama Is Suffering Because Of His Achievements Not Despite Them – An interesting take on the hits the President has taken. Basically, a bunch of the country hates him because he is getting things done, and the frustration and anger gets worse among this population the more he accomplishes.
  • Will The Fed’s Debit Fee Rule Help Merchants? – In another underreported positive consequence of having Democrats in charge when the financial reform bill was developed and passed, transaction fees for credit cards and debit cards will be going down, returning that money to merchants and consumers, who actually use and spend it, rather than aggregating it to the banks, who don’t.
  • Jesus Is a Liberal Democrat – If you haven’t seen Stephen Colbert’s take on Christmas-season charity, you should.
  • Incredible ISS Pictures – Astronaut Wheelock took these awesome pictures of the ISS during his journey there a few months ago. Amazing.
  • New Rules For a New Senate – Sen. Merkley has a proposal to have the Senate actually debate on legislation instead of sitting around holding cloture votes. I know, shocking!

Water Management and “Cause and Effect”

Leesburg District Supervisor Burk has a short and strong letter in the Loudoun Times-Mirror and on Leesburg Patch this week. In it, she briefly lays out the long-term economic case for managing our water quality in a natural manner, rather than through expensive industrial solutions.

Environmental protection and economic development are linked.  The protection of water resources is itself a powerful economic engine, which will allow businesses locating in Loudoun to be assured of a clean and reliable water supply.  Clean water frees up our limited funding resources, so therefore, will allow the County to spend money on other areas rather than on chemical refinement and increased infrastructure.

Storm water treatment alone is estimated to need millions of dollars in improvements to holding tanks and conveyance piping.  However, Jim Gordon of Westfair, Inc. suggests in his article, “Rich in Water,” that it is foolhardy to recommend spending that money since the structure sits unused most of the time.  Instead, the county should be examining green solutions such as engineered wetlands as bio-filters and holding ponds and other measures which could provide open space and other benefits like cleaner air, higher property values and reduced energy usage.  Some of these very solutions can be found in the water protection CPAM we currently are reviewing in the Transportation and Land Use Committee. – Supervisor Kelly Burk

Supervisor Burk has made a career out of this kind of long-term thinking an planning. Not only will bio-filters for our water help keep it cleaner, it will help the County economically by reducing the water management spending necessary in future years.

It is for reasons like this that the County has a comprehensive plan, and why I am glad Supervisor Burk is doing a great job managing to that plan.

Progress in Northern Virginia

Did you know that in the western part of vorthern Virginia (otherwise known as VA-10, until Redistricting changes it) has seen 76,000 jobs created or preserved thanks to actions taken by President Obama and the Democratic Congress of 2009-2010?

Did you know that over 11,000 neighbors have pre-existing conditions that inhibited their ability to get health insurance before the Affordable Health Care For America Act was passed?

How about the fact that some 3,800 teachers and educators had their jobs saved by Federal financing, funding which was implemented without adding to the deficit.

These are just a few of the things accomplished by President Obama and the Democratic Congress.

Something to remember when people wonder what President Obama has done since coming into office.

Leesburg’s Roads Are Incomplete

The roads network in and around Leesburg may seem confusing to many. For example, I cannot tell you the number of friends who call me when their GPS sends them up Catoctin Circle only to run into a barrier across the roadway. It is important to understand, however, that Leesburg’s roads aren’t confusing insomuch as they’re incomplete. Battlefield Parkway, Sycolin Flyover, Crosstrail Boulevard, Kincaid Boulevard, Russell Branch Parkway, these are only a handful of the roads that are partially complete, and in that partial state lead to some confused visitors to our wonderful Town.

Our Democratic officials have made completion of this critical road network a high priority. Supervisor Burk has been instrumental in fighting for and securing funding for the completion of Battlefield Parkway and the Sycolin Flyover throughout her career on both Council and the Board of Supervisors. Sen. Herring has been working diligently to find creative solutions in the face of Assembly inaction, witness his Rt. 7 Task Force, which has brought together a wide variety of stakeholders to set transportation priorities independent of political machinations. On Council, Dave Butler and Marty Martinez have helped to lead the fight for funding major road improvements (Sycolin Road) when the state abandoned their responsibilities to get local roads done.

In fact, every since I moved to Leesburg in 2006, the state has been failing in its transportation responsibilities (roads funding, transportation safety, Metro funding) and the Town of Leesburg, led by Democrats on the Council, has been stepping in to pick up the slack even while fighting ever harder for Richmond to do its job. That is real leadership on the most critical issue facing our Town. And it has been consistent for five years and across a half-dozen elected officials in a series of offices. That is what commitment to solving problems looks like. That is what governing, not complaining and dodging responsibility looks like.

Democrats simply get to work, and get things done. Sure, right now Leesburg’s roads are incomplete, but thanks to Sen. Herring, Supervisor Burk, Councilman Butler, Councilman Martinez, (and Mayor Umstattd!), they will get done, in spite of the procedural hurdles and roadblocks others may put in place.

(Crossposted from Leesburg Tomorrow. With a tip-o-the-hat to Leesburg Patch.)  

Leesburg Income changes

The New York Times has an awesome feature that provides a wealth of mapped census data on every tract in the U.S. You can slice and dice the maps by race, income, housing and education, just to name a few. When you do so, you learn a lot about where we live.

Like, for example, for what I’ll call “Greater Leesburg” the side of Rt 15 you live on matters quite a lot. If you live West of Rt. 15, your neighborhood’s average income probably went up since 2000. East of Rt. 15, it probably went down.

Leesburg Incomes Census 2010

Blue sectors are areas where incomes declined, orange sectors are areas where incomes increased.And then compare that with the median income in 2010 map.

Leesburg Median Income 2010

Deep green simply designates median household incomes over $100,000. In the case of Leesburg, the two light green sectors have median incomes of $73,431 (NE Leesburg) and $82,083 (SE Leesburg), respectively. All Leesburg sectors west of Rt. 15 have median incomes over $113,000.

Something to think about when people are crying socialism and fascism over a local tax bill that might be $100 higher next year. I rather doubt it’s the people in those blue / lighter green sectors – the ones who had lower median incomes, which then declined over the past 10 years – doing the screaming.

(Crossposted from Leesburg Tomorrow. With a tip-o-the-hat to OpenLeft.)