Does anyone know why Citizen’s United (of Corporations Are People Too! fame) would be donating to Suzanne Volpe when she’s a) running unopposed for b) Supervisor? When c) they seem to be focusing more on the General Assembly?
The Loudoun Times-Mirror carries the story of Jim Magner’s withdrawl from the race for the Democratic nomination in DEL-10.
“First, the creation of this new district offers a real opportunity for the democratic party to make a difference both in Richmond and here in Loudoun County, and I feel that a protracted primary fight would only hinder the party’s chances for realizing that potential in the general election,” he said in a statement.
In addition, Magner, an attorney with Washington, D.C.-based Leiser, Leiser & Hennessy, said a recent victory in Loudoun County Circuit Court has caused a drastic increase in the demands on his law practice and has “left me unable to dedicate the time needed to effectively manage may campaign.”
Magner’s client, Daniel Campos of Sterling, was recently awarded $282,000 in compensatory damages in a case against retail giant Wal-Mart. Campos was allegedly accosted and accused of shoplifting by Wal-Mart security guards.
In his statement, Magner said he is pledging his support for fellow Democrat Butler.
First, thank you to Mr. Magner for his efforts to defend the rights of our neighbors, like Mr. Campos, in court. Our community benefits greatly from his service as a defender of those rights in cases like the one cited above. And thanks also for pledging support for Councilman Butler, a man positioned to make a real difference in Richmond.
Dave Butler held a series of kickoff events for his Delegate campaign this past weekend. He traveled from Leesburg to Winchester, the length of the 10th District, making the case for his candidacy. He talked about his family, and his experience as a businessman and father in Loudoun county. He talked about his service on the Town Council, and his experience bridging divides to find answers to difficult questions of public concern. And Dave talked about what was missing. He talked about how our area does not get its fair share from Richmond, and how we can, and should, have a Delegate who will fight for us, and our jobs.
In that, he stands alone as a candidate for the 10th District. While others vying for the seat talk about blame and platitudinous issues that Delegates do not deal with, Dave Butler shares his experience with us and focuses on what can be done, now, to address the needs of the 10th District. We will do well to elect him to the General Assembly on November 8th.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is the arm of the Democratic Party that works to elect Democrats to state (and commonwealth) legislatures. This critical, but little noticed, piece of machinery is responsible for tracking election results for a huge number of elections, every year. Because of the sheer number and variety of races involved, it is a lot easier to draw assumptions about electoral trends from these state legislature races than from, say, a single US Senate or House special election. And the trending for Democrats at the state level this year is a lot better than it was in 2010.
In the last three months, we’ve noticed a startling trend: Since March 1st, Democratic candidates have overperformed in almost every similar special election compared to the Democrats who ran in the same districts in 2010.
This is a truly stunning turnaround. The conventional wisdom says that all else being equal (though it never is), a lower-profile election will produce a more Republican electorate. Therefore, a presidential year like 2008 should see better Democratic performance than a midterm like 2010, which in turn should see better Democratic performance than an odd-year special election.
But ever since the radicalism of the GOP’s assault on working families had a chance to sink in nationally, we’ve begun to see the opposite. Democratic special election candidates are now performing about 9.7% better than the Democratic candidates who ran in the exact same districts in 2010. – DLCC
The DLCC analysis goes on to state that the Wisconsin Recall elections will provide a wealth more data to be added to the analysis. Even without the Wisconsin results, an average improvement in 9.7% in special elections is incredible.
I mention this because here in Virginia Democrats seem to write off the House of Delegates. Even some of my favorite Delegate candidates speak of serving in the minority in Richmond. But by my estimation, there are no fewer than twelve seats in the House of Delegates that would have been flipped from Republican to Democrat in 2009, if the Democrat had won 9.7% more of the vote. That would have easily flipped control of the House of Delegates from Republicans to Democrats. And this is before Redistricting – Redistricting which has added even more seats from Democratic Northern Virginia.
The first step towards winning a majority is starting from the belief that you can (though not necessarily will) win a majority. The analysis from the DLCC shows that there may be a wind at the backs of Democratic state legislative candidates, a wind that will blow into November for us here in Virginia. So let’s start talking like we’re going to win, because we can, and we should, and if we work hard enough to make it happen, we will.
It wasn’t that long ago that there was a race for Delegate shaping up between incumbent Republican senior citizen Joe May and the young Leesburg Town Council member, Dave Butler. Dave made his intentions to run for Delegate known before the Redistricting fight in Richmond was over. So, it came as a surprise to no one that Joe May conveniently redistricted his opponent out of his District. And yes, the map in this area was Del. May’s doing. As a senior member of the House of Delegates, with incumbency since 1994 (and a perspective rooted in 1994, as well), it was his hand drawing the lines.
Dave Butler is a candidate that one of the most senior, and historically electorally safe, Republicans in the Assembly, did not want to run against.
After the new lines were drawn, Councilmember Butler started visiting with the voters in the new 10th District. From the Winchester Airport, to Boyce in Clarke, to Middleburg, Leesburg and Goose Creek, he has been walking through neighborhoods, talking to Virginians, and listening to the concerns of constituents who do not feel they’re getting their fair share from Richmond.
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Crossposted at Equality Loudoun.
Today’s Washington Post:
Virginians are closely divided over whether gay marriage should be legal, according to a new Washington Post poll, a striking result in a state that overwhelmingly agreed to amend its constitution to ban gay marriage just five years ago.
Forty-seven percent of Virginians say gay couples should be allowed to legally wed, and 43 percent are opposed, according to the poll. Fifty-five percent of Virginians say gay couples should be able to legally adopt children.
The results mirror a dramatic and rapid shift in national public opinion about gay rights in recent years.
Dramatic indeed. Here are the national trendlines, via Nate Silver:
Since I couldn’t get the Virginia Redistricting site’s interactive map to work, I spent some time this morning playing with shapefiles and viewing software, along with my computer’s screenshot capabilities. As a result, I present to you the maps, as I understand them, of Assembly Districts (Delegate and Senate) in and around Loudoun County, Virginia.
(Incidentally, Hampton Roads online has a fantastic zoomable map, but I think the data on which it is based is the vetoed plans, rather than the passed, compromise plans from April 28th.)
First, Delegate Districts, as determined by the compromise plans passed on April 28th.
Next, Senate Districts.
Finally, Senate Districts with a bit more regional context.
Hopefully, this will help inform all of the, “wait, does that candidate live in this district?” discussions going on. There are two more images below the jump that dig down into a bit more detail in the Ashburn Area, for people interested in where those lines really fall.
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I put some shoe leather in for Jennifer Wexton yesterday. She and I walked my neighborhood gathering signatures for her petition to get on the ballot. We had a great time visiting with my neighbors and talking with a star-struck youngster who thought it was really cool that Stevens and I live around the corner from her.
Jennifer has what it takes to win, and she’s committed to it. She did over 40 doors with me, and then went and did over 40 in Leesburg in the afternoon.
Way to go, Jennifer!!!
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And speaking of candidates who are doing well, have any of you seen Mike Kondratick‘s VPAP filing this period? He’s the 25th in the state for money raised. WAY TO GO, MIKE!!
There’s one possible candidate who won’t be needing me to canvass for him this year.
Stevens, I couldn’t be prouder of all the work you’ve done for Loudoun and Virginia the last few years. Thank you for letting me be part of it.
Holy guacamole, those HOD and Senate maps make Loudoun’s redistricting look rational.
Here’s what we’ve got:
4 Senate Seats
6, possibly 7 HOD Seats
All-in-all, it’s…impressive.
Starting with this cycle, and continuing until I say otherwise, I will not endorse any candidate for any office unless I personally put some shoe leather into the game for that candidate.
No walking? No talking.
If you see me endorsing a candidate here, it will mean I put some sweat equity into their campaign.
I may expand this to candidates I donate trackable money to.